Euro Breakout 1 Hour For 4 Hour consolidation (retrace)

The daily is still committed to a short trend at this time.

The 4 hour needs to commit with the VTN trigger pulling under the candle to indicate a solid retrace/consolidation.

We need to wait for the midnight candle to verify the proposition.

 The Heat map at this time is set for the immediate future i.e. less than swing trade, is long.

We can see that the 5 and 15 are breaking away on our make shift heat map using the standard Bollinger bands.  The 30 has yet to signal us into the 1 hour.

While the 1 hour Vampire Trading Network, Inc. Trigger does not have a completed predictive formation, the 30 minute shows that we have a trade that should get us up to 1.2233.  this just happens to be the 10 SMA on the 4 Hour.  Beyond that is the 1.2252 which also happens to be the bottom of the VTN VRZ caution zone.

The Trigger and other specialized proprietary indicators are available through subscription.

Daily and 4 hour sync'd for short to 1.2180

The Daily has given a formation on the VTN Trigger to be able to predict where the next movement should go down to 1.2180.

The VTN Trigger is a proprietary Bollinger which can be acquired through subscription at Vampire Trading Network, Inc.

The 4 hour also confirms the 1.2180 1st target  (1.2188 for safety)
the entry window is about to occur below 1.2260 to 1.2230
 A stop of 1.2394
A second target 1.2100 (1.2112 for safety)

Sentiment not favorable to Buba Weber Dollar Strength

First off I am not jumping in after missing this run downward.  Of note is that the 4Hour is still pinching showing that there is more pressure to be built up before the 4 hour will break. 

All is now showing toward a short.  We still are not going to get a prediction from the daily till Tuesday Wednesday. But we can glean something from the 4 Hour.

Our short entry is between 1.2261 and 1.2230. In the recent past there has been support around 1.2252 and 1.2240.  and note that our last bottom was 1.2208 on the 6/23.

We show targets at
1.2180 (2188 would be safer)
1.2100 (2112 would be safer
1.2019 outside 1.1988 there will be certainly retrace/consolidation before this unless there is another melt down.

I do not see breaking to the upside for at least 24 hours so I am not even looking that way.

Daily is starting to form a predictive shape 4H looks like Horse Pooh Lower time frame scalps ?

Daily is starting to form a predictive pattern, The 4 hour continues to look like horse pooh, The 1 hour is over pinched, but the 30 minute looks like a great pattern.

On the heat map the daily is committing to a long but could change on the moment. the 4 hour could consolidate the daily further to the down side if the lower time frames commit strongly.  

Basically the Euro can continue to go anywhere.  I am taking lessons from last week and not trading unless in a perfect double pinch.  Ain't worth the extra maintenance effort.  And I am expecting more of the same if the Daily falls back to the 76.4% retrace that it has hung on for several days.

I still am  holding to CAUTION breaking 1.2500 / 1.2552. This is a critical test point.

CURRENTLY the strong resistances are 1.2396 and REMEMBER 1.2404 was a bear to break last week.  then we have the current high to break at 1.2465.  More exact number will be forth coming once the daily fully forms.  By then we should also have a fresh 4 hour formation.

? Poised for Sloppy Breakout

Daily has established support at 1.2243 the 62% retracement.  As I write this we are approaching this, To bounce or not to bounce on the 1H.  50% retracement is at 1.2173 which is also a bounce point for the Vampire Trading Networkm Inc. Custom Trigger Bollinger Indicator, available through Subscription.

For the 1 hour 1.2242 will need to be watched for strength to see if we can crash through the daily floor.
Strength is key.

targets 1.2215 1.2188 outside 1.2162

(MADE 1.2132 1.2232)

EURO 4H Breakout Short 1st Target 1.2262 2nd Target 1.2200 Outside 1.2138

The Euro 4H struggled over our first target last week to 1.2462 before falling off.  The Day chart today has also turned over as it consolidates as the 4H tests the short entry.

As from our last post, the multi time frame Bollinger bands were not very well sync'd but they do give a breakout indication.  BUT as we saw the 4H almost took the entire week to decide what to do.  Given these indicators it is not done deciding there is a LOT of support all over the place.

The one thing I don't like about the probabilities is that the 1 Hour did not make a good pinch formation, rather it is what I call a sliding or falling Bollinger which is a sign of weakness.

On the Day chart we have support at 1.2338 on the 5 EMA and 1.2262 on the 10 SMA.

The 4 Hour has broken major support at 1.2352 and has next support at 1.2288, 1.2262 and 1.2238.

There is little confirmation at this time with the lower time frames as they have not truly consolidated since the craziness of  the last 18 hours.

CAUTIOUSLY:
Entry: 1.2322 / 1.2300 (YUCK!!!)
Stop Loss: 1.2464
1st Target: 1.2262
Caution Target: 1.2238
2nd Target: 1.2212
3rd Target: 1.2138
Outside 1.2112

Because of current weakness I am sure there will be a correction before then.

Burn, BURN! BURN!!! How to Stay out of Trouble with Bollinger Bands and Not Succumb to Amateur Sunday Whipsaw Burn

Last and this mornings Euro have reminded me of an old SNL skit with Steve Martin and Bill Murray, "What the hell is that?"

When "that" happened I took a look at the ForexFactory Euro Forum around 21:30 EDT and was dismayed to find purely amateurish dialog, explanations, and Mr. Dumas trading practices going on from the Asian session through the Euro Session on into the USD session.

The simple explanation as I pointed way before others, is that a inter session gap is typically filled before continuation.  The question should not have been why did the Euro fall so sharply as much as why was there a gap up to begin with.  To be fair to the forum, some experienced traders do post that unpublished fundamentals having to do with China, Oil, Euro state in monetary trouble etc.

The point is You must do your own DO DILIGENCE in order to succeed as a trader.  Remember the Patience is a Virtue Post.  I am a technical trader, which means I am mostly consumed with charting rather than news.  I know for my own improvement I need to improve my awareness of current fundamentals, but typically I trade on upper time frames that just are not affected much by fundamentals, in that a spike from a market news blast typically within hours is exhausted and the currency returns to where the technicals places it. If the stop loss is placed properly there is no worry.  Get below the 4 hour and you will be susceptible to Fundamentals and need to plan accordingly.

Given the last 18 hours, I can guess that there are many a newbies, amateurs and gamblers accounts that have been decimated.  How can one stay out of trouble?  A useful tool is to use the standard Bollinger Band and observe all time frames below your trading time frame as an early warning system.

The standard Bolling Band is made from a Standard Deviation about a Simple Moving Average, or SMA, typically this is a 20 SMA with a standard deviation of 2. What you want to do is have patience by waiting for the Bollinger band to complete it's "pinch" and undergo an expansion or ballooning.  This expansion indicates that volume is flowing in increasing momentum and causing a breakout.  The pinching of the Bollinger Bands is an indication of consolidation that is occurring do to the over extension of a lower time frame.  Ideally one waits until all time frames are sync'd together which is a good indication of the start of the illusive Eliot way.

To the left is a stack of semi synchronized time frames starting with the 5M on the bottom to the 1H on the top.  You can see how each time frame is synchronized to a breakout that occurs between 07:45 and 08:00.   This gives a high probability of a long entry at 08:00 on the 1 hour.

I personally like the 15M in determining exits, and i especially like Bollinger Bands for giving a heads up indication of what is about to happen. In this case notice how the 15M upper Bollinger band is closing over the top of the candle.  This indicates that a consolidation is likely to occur.

On a long trade, look for a negative decrease of slope to indicate potential.  A horizontal to negative slope signals that this leg of the trade is over. Confirmation is indicating by the engulfing Candle.

So for this particular trade. A 1 hour entry would be made on the 08:00 EDT open 1.1997 and an exit would be on the close of the 15M exit of 1.2054 at 11:45.  For FX Solutions with a locked in spread of 3 PIPs, a 54 PIP profit would have been realized.

This example shows an easy way to create a Trend Trading Signal of high probability.  The trick to it's implementation is learning when to enter and exit, and to WAIT for the indicator to fully synchronize and complete before jumping the gun.

Euro 1H Tight Channel Breakout, Any Which Way, Daily Longest Ascending Channel Since November

Tonight has been a long evening of indecision, and with little to no fundamental news this Friday, anything could happen.

Significant with the Euro for this week is that it has maintained a steady meandering walk of nearly 300 PIPs a week.  While the ATR is again shrinking to pre fall levels, The Euro broke through a 38% Fibonacci Fan line last week and as of today has held on to breaking the 50% Fib Fan line.  Can the Eruo hold above this line and make a play for the 61.8% Fib Fan Line at 1.2500?

Those still waiting for the 4 hour to do something may wish to watch this am and counter a break short but the 1H.  AT THIS TIME, momentum is still favoring a completion to 1.2433.  That 1.2412 boundary has been a real BEAR to get through.  In our favor there does not seem to be much in the way of 1.2452 or  1.2488.  But be cautious I still am not in love with breaking 1.2500.  It would be nice to run back into the twenties, but I don't see Europe offering anything substantial to the world, not to say the the US can do any better, there is still a wealth of intellectual property.

4Hour Breaking Upper Entry

Sorry for the late post, BUSY BUSY with managing Clients.

Things are looking up at the MOMENT for a long breakout now, CAUTION at the first target level since the Day has it's first entry level at 1.2414.  His these type of targets usually have a bounce and consolidation.  This is what we are seeing now with the 1 hour and 30 minute.  We are also poised for News release in the next 40 minutes.  As mentioned it seems that all news regarding euro has favored strength in the Euro regardless of good or bad.

The upper Entry on the day is at 1.2535, this certainly gives us enough room for the 4H to make its 2nd target.

For those in the trade since yesterday, a new first target could be increased to 1.2433.  The current situation is that the 1 hour has hit it's second target and could be consolidating for the next leg which would be good to add strength.  The 30 minute has already consolidated and could drop to mid 1.2300's before continuing.  AGAIN News in 25 minutes.

The short is for swing/day trade,
If you are in the trade since yesterday, take profit some profit off the table and secure your account.  Pull next profit at 1.2488, DO PULL PROFIT.  If you are still feeling adventurous, look to 1.2538/1.2552 to exit completely and do a chicken dance.

The indicators used for this analysis are proprietary and available by Subscription through Vampire Trading Network, Inc.

4Hour Breakout Looks to be Eminent

The daily has now given us a new trend to llok at committing now for a long back toward 1.2500's.

For now I would be cautious regarding a move much beyond 1.2538 for now.  The indecision in Europe is key, as well as the USD.  It should be noted that most all fundamentals good and bad have favored strength in the EURO.  If a break through is seen above 1.2538, then I would look for a retrace at 1.2730's.  At any rate be cautions of the following resistances 1.2412, 1.2530 and 1.2730

The Daily should carry the 4 hour up.  For caution allow to break current resistance of high 1.2345.

Again targeting 1.2412, 1.2512 and 1.2600, with an outside chance of 1.2638.

My personal feeling is that we will have a consolidation either at 1.2418 or  1.2518 depending on the strength of the move.

The last few days have had limited volume or momentum as indicated by all the YELLOW in Vampire Trading Network, Inc. Custom Heat Map.

This and other custom indicators used in determining trade trend and predicting target points are available through Subscription.

EURO 4 HOUR Breakout NOW!!!

Not much time to write about this because I am involved with Expert Agent Design
The 1H had an wonderful night with a short and an early long this morning this has turned into a H4 signal

Entry Window 1.2323 - 1.2359
1st Target 1.2412
2nd Target 1.2512
3rd Target 1.2600
Outside 1.2638

Again this is an early warning, Until the trigger fully forms definitive targets are not available.  So using good judgement, the targets should be down sized to 1.2388, 1.2488 and 1.2588.

Hopefully I will be able to post an update.

Coming soon I hope to be presenting articles on money management strategies.

ADDENDUM
Why the Rejection at 1.2300
Well you should be able to answer this without any knowledge of the Vampire Trading Network, Inc. Custom Indicators available through Subscription.

The 1 hour has reached its first target which was predicted way back on the 05:00 EDT candle.


Remember Patience IS a Virtue.

EURO 1H Breakout 2010.06.11 01:15

2010.06.11 01:25

At this time there is no way to define entry points for the EURO.  The charts are changing minute to minute pinching the custom Vampire Trading Network, Inc. Trigger Bollinger.  This indicator is used to predict where the trend is likely to goto before consolidating do to the over extension of a lower time frame.  By following this log you will find that all standard indicators on timeframes are linked together, you can accelerate this knowledge by Subscribing to Vampire Trading Room, 

The Custom VTN Trigger Bollinger is a representation of the instant support and resistance for a time frame in Real Time.  As the currency fluctuates this indicator will change shape as dependent on volume, velocity and momentum.  Typically it is a solid indicator but when the volume gets low as indicated by the yellow heatmap the Trigger can tighten up drastically on higher time frames. It is doing this now on the 30M and 1H. 

As the 1H tightens the Fibonacci Extension has to be adjusted to address proper entry parameters.

The 30 Minute is a little more stable but also is showing this dynamic pinching.  At this time the entry and targets are shown.  

Two things are expected from this,  The entry becomes closer, as does the stoploss.  This increases the reward but adversely the risk is also increased do to the volatility.

Why could this be happening?

One factor is the early News announcement,  An opening of fundamentals can be considered Amateur Hour.  This decreases the probability of success.

It is most likely well and good to get a good night sleep and see if there is the ability to capitalize on the consolidation during the US Session.

Since I have already put in a hair loosing, but successful 27 hour day this week, I am voting for a nice sleep.

DO your DO DILIGENCE and predict what is going to happen to check yourself in the morning.  If you missed 150 PIP movement... "OH WELL", remember IT IS ALSO LIKELY YOU COULD FIND YOURSELF DOWN 150 PIPs in a whipsaw.

A more prudent strategy would be to wait for the 3 am Cable session to open and use a 1 hour support and resistance breakout

EURO 2010.06.10 23:45 Patience Is A Virtue

So we're moving into the last day of this weeks session, and the use of Vampire Trading Network, Inc. Custom Indicators has been reasonably good at predicting what was going to happen and where the immediate trend was going to take us.  Patience is definitely a virtue when looking at immediate trends.  One of the hardest trading techniques to acquire and practice is learning how not to trade.  Emotion is an ENEMY.  If you have predicted a pattern and it gets away from you NEVER chase it.  I can not tell you how many times I have eliminated huge personal gains chasing after a trade only to get in on the pull back.  As my Partner "Dr Bob" Gube-Zitrin always states to his students, "Plan to Trade, Trade to Plan".  I was discussing with a VP of FX Solutions, the fact that I did not jump in on the run at 8:45 this morning.  It had already pulled out of the station and there would be another 60 pips to be had, IN HINDSIGHT,  The candle accounted for 50 pips of the movement at that time, I could have been 30 pips in the hole.  As you follow this Blog you will see that there are huge opportunities to be had, WAIT FOR THE PERFECT condition where probability is on your side.

 AND REMEMBER, NO MATTER WHAT, EVERY TRADE IS A 50:50 PROPOSITION. 

Trading on the 1 Hour time frame is dangerous and wrought with danger.  The 1 Hour and timeframes below are very good indicators however to what is going on at the 4 hour time frame as is the Daily chart and indicator.

For the coming session, one thing can be gleaned immediately compared to the chart in the beginning of the week, LOTS OF YELLOW.  This is an indication of low volume and loss of momentum, and a WARNING signal.

The VTN Foresight is showing that the 4 Hour wants to roll its potential back to a short, The 1 Hour is now over extended do to consolidation and is still above both the VTN Trend boundary at 1.2088 and the VRZ which is a caution zone of extreme resistance or Support indicated by the triple band of yellow.  In short anything could happen at this point.

Let's set up for next week.

The daily has committed to a consolidation, as indicated by the close Bollinger bottom.  This is great news for the coming because it means we will get Swing Trend indication soon for the next 300-500 PIPs.

Also the EURO attacked a MAJOR resistance trend set in early May.  NOTE that we are well below the Trend boundary which is shown in Aqua at 1.2222.  Typically, once the Bollinger closes the bottom of a trend the currency will rise to bounce off the other side.  NOTE: this is a custom Vampire Trading Network, Inc. indicator that is not reproducible in many charting packages but is available to you through Subscription to our Vampire Trading Room, which offers 5 days of Webinars and a 24x5 live trading chat room where subscribers post trades in real time ONLY.

The 4 Hour chart, while it looks like the Bollinger has closed on top, it actually is still increasing and has potential, the red foresight means nothing as well because this candle is only 45 minutes old and could easily get a strong push with Euro news at at 2 and 2:45 AM as well as Cable news throughout the session.

Note, that while we have attacked major milestones in resistance, there is a huge amount left in the way and not much more room for the Daily to increase.  The Stop and Reverse signal are also creeping into position which means we could go into consolidation until Sunday which would take pressure off tomorrow and set up a nice trading week next week.

The one hour like wise shows consolidation and is popping the SARs back and forth.  This can again go either way, and while an hour or so ago was looking like we could go short, that would have been a bad move on an early entry.

REMEMBER that Patience is a Virtue.

The VTN Foresight is showing a want for returning to an immediate long trend.

But looking at the lower time frames we see that they are pulling over again, at least another cycle is do.  There is also the fact that the trend is "Pinching" which in Vampire Trading Room lingo means DON'T TRADE until there is a commitment.  AGAIN, this is all about maximizing your probability to place a successful trade.

 AND REMEMBER, NO MATTER WHAT, EVERY TRADE IS A 50:50 PROPOSITION. 

EURO 4H Breakout 2010.06.10 20:07

The 4 hour seem to be committing to a run long.  CAUTION to the trend change.

Above is an updated picture of the current break out SHOULD it happen.  With this move the lower time frames 5 and 15 are over extended and consolidating, the 30 and 1H are showing signs of turning over.

The 4H has created a well defined probability pattern, BUT since you are new to this blog, you have to be it is less than a week old, inside the entry zone at the 4H level a currency pair has a tendency to pull back, and possibly even fail.  Becoming a subscriber to Vampire Trading Room, entitles you to our custom and unique indicators which can give you a heads up on whether to wait or enter.

It is now 10:20 and here is a snap shot of the heat map

You can clearly show how th 5 minute heat map has pulled the 30 minute over and caused the 30 minute to change its attack angle.  All we need do is wait for the 5 and 15 minute to reverse long again, indicating the potential to enter at a much better position.

REVISED HOW TO PLAY

1. Select a stop loss such as 1.1936
2. Plan an entry between 1.2101 and 1.22137
3. Take entry less stop loss plus spread and calculate lots to trade e.g. 5% of account
4. At 1st Target take 50% of lots off trade which returns approximately 75% of your investment back to realized gains.
5. Move stop to break even or 1.2136
6. At 2nd Target take 50% or remaining lots of trade this should be approximately equal to your first pull.
7. Move Stoploss to 1.2186

I REPEAT 

Use your best gut feeling for the remainder of trade. With high time frames experience has showed me that the 4Hour will consolidate at 2nd target so you might as well pull the whole trade at that point. This particular move Has more strength now but is still filled with resistance, taking everything off the table at 1st target may be most prudent, or pull 75% and run a tight stoploss. 

Euro Breakout Long 2010.06.09-11:55

Euro Breakout Long 2010.06.09-11:55

The 1 hour break out behaved pretty much as expected. There was a pull back to suffer through the Euro session before taking a good run through the USD session open.

This evening shows that the 1 hour is making another pass towards previous high but caution needs to be taken as we approach two significant resistances from the Daily chart and a 4 Hour trend line establish at the beginning of May. 1.2038, 1.2062 and 1.2112. Note that these just happen to be the predicted take profits from yesterday.

The 4 hour predictability has become very muddled, but the fact that the daily Bollinger is closing up says that we should still see a continued press long. as the Daily continues to consolidate. If the May 4hour trend line remains in control through the next day a pendant will form. A Daily trend line established in April will then become the dominant Resistance which will likely time the next leg of the Euro's existence, either Long or Short.

For tonight, the 4 hour is the play or it may peter out. Look for pull backs at 1.2062, 1.2088 and 1.2138. An outside chance for 1.2212 may be possible but I am not counting for more than that though the fib extension shows outside run to 1.2288/and test of 1.2312.

PLEASE READ THE DISCLOSURE AT BOTTOM OF PAGE

HOW TO PLAY

1. Select a stop loss such as 1.1932
2. Plan an entry between 1.2062 and 1.2091
3. Take entry less stop loss plus spread and calculate lots to trade e.g. 5% of account
4. At 1st Target take 50% of lots off trade which returns approximately 75% of your investment back to realized gains.
5. Move stop to break even or 1.2086
6. At 2nd Target take 50% or remaining lots of trade this should be approximately equal to your first pull.
7. Move Stoploss to 1.2036

Use your best gut feeling for the remainder of trade. With high time frames experience has showed me that the 4Hour will consolidate at 2nd target so you might as well pull the whole trade at that point. This particular move seems to be week and filled with resistance so why not take everything off the table at 1st target and walk away with a nice prize.

Euro Breakout Long 2010.06.09-06:25

Euro has made a move to the long side using 1 hour chart

entry 1.1971 - 1,1079

1st target 1.1988

2nd target 1.2012

3rd target 1.2038

4 hour still forming

entry 1.2012 - 1.2038

1st target 1.2062

2nd target 1.2120

3rd target 1.2162 - 1.2188

READ DISCLAIMER

EURO Breakout 2010.06.08-14:34 EDT

Our Daily technicals are trying to commit to a return long, but the 4 hour chart looks to be thinking about completing its move to the downside.

The VTN Indicators and Heat Map show that we are poised for a breakout in either direction. Pressure has continued to build throughout the day.

Support is holding at 1.1920 while significant support should be felt at 1.1912

There is a strong possibility of a short run to Fibonacci support at 1.1862 with a possibility of continuing into the 1.1720's and depending on the strength push through to a trend line at 1.1688 to 1.1652.

To the long side there is much resistance to make through, notably 1.2012, 1.2052 and 1.2088, breaking through this should see an ability to make 1.2152 and possible 1.2252 in the near future.

Use these links to learn more about Vampire Trading Network, Inc. or to Subscribe to Vampire Trading Room.

WELCOME, First Post

Welcome to my Blog, my first Blog.

I am creating this as a way to attract folks to our company, Vampire Trading Network, Inc. Our clients have been with us long before my partners, Dr. Bob and Hanna Gube-Zitrin, and I started the company to teach our successful strategies. I am primarily the technical driver of the company, having retried as a Test Automation Architect from Cisco in June of 2007. My mentor, Dr. Bob and his Wife Hanna are our Primary Strategists and Educators. Together with a number of our clients which volunteer their time to teach as well we are able to deliver all day webinars daily and a working trading chat room that is available throughout the FOREX trading week.

For me, the blend of being both a Software Architect and a seasoned trader give our company the unique ability to quickly modify our strategies and custom indicators for the changing FOREX Market. I hope to offer some of my skill set to the public regarding the EURO which I concentrate on for our Automated Trading Robots. I hope you find these posts useful and will consider Vampire Trading Network, Inc. as a potential home for your FOREX learning and trading needs.