Let's get Technical, Technical, I wanna get Technical, let's get into Technical Let me hear the EURO talk, The EURO Talk, let me The EURO TALK

With this AM's news the Euro took a 60 PIP spike on a little bad news from the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI which is still falling off from a steady 55.4 in April, May and June to 53.8. [ NOTE that the forecast has been adjusted back to 55.4 each of the last 3 months.]

I have stayed silent since we have the USD holiday, Kick off of USD summer, the Gulf crisis and inaction of US Government to come up with a true plan of action.

While the USD breakout was for 1.2600, and a confirmation signal was had  1.2608, I am happy to wait on the side lines to let the news settle out.  

In the mean time we can have a look at Vampire Trading Network, Inc. Technicals that we teach to see what will possible happen in the near suture for the EURO.

We have broken last weeks High and are currently testing 1.2638/52 to move on.

From the chart we can see the retracement could not break through the 23.6 minor Fibonacci support.

Looking at the Weekly chart using the Vampire Trading Network, Inc. Trigger Indicator, which is a modified Bollinger available to Subscribers, we see we have about 150 PIPs to  a bounce off the upper band.  One of our strategies,  THE AUTUMN, named for the colors associated with the indicator, is dependent on the high probability of the currency meeting with this resistance in order to signal the consolidation on that time frame.  

We can see that we have about 150 PIPs to the long side for this week.  Totally doable within the next couple of days.

Addendum: 7/7/2010
NOTE: The Weekly Trigger is moving down at 200 PIPs a week, this means that our movement might be completed.  Caution above 1.2650

Once the trigger indicator consolidates giving us the proper formation we can give a good indication of where the next month or more will likely take us.

Notice also how the the support lines are now giving us resistance; thus we could possibly see a break above 1.2800 to 1.2838. 

As of 11 AM EDT the Daily EURO has hit its first target of 1.2645. 

Note the second target being 1.2789,  This is significantly close to the Bobanacci numbers, named after my mentor and partner Dr. Bob Gube-Zitrin.  [BLOG: Dr. Bob's FOREX Trade Signals]  These are typically Support Resistance numbers that should be obeyed as targets when taking profit at

...12 ...38 ...62 ...88

It is now 11:17 EDT and on the 4 Hour we have hit our second target.  If you have been following this blog for the last 3 weeks you would see immediately that we would have set up this trade with the following parameters (NOTE given the holiday and SAR's this was NOT a good probability trade do to  low volume and instability but the power of Vampire Trading Network, Inc. technicals is clearly demonstrated.

Entry: 1.2576 - 1.2590

1st Target profit: 1.2612 (Bobanacci)

2nd Target profit: 1.2651

3rd Target: 1.2688 (Bobanacci)

Outside: 1.2700 (Natural Resistance)

Coming up on 11:30 EDT we added the Vampire Trading Network, Inc. Primary Indicator.  this indicator shows that at the moment the 4 Hour is still consolidating as noted by the white  Bollinger bands still collapsing or pinching.  When this indicator shows an expansion, you know that the currency is in a good (large) trend move toward its 1st and 2nd targets.  

This is why I am currently patiently not emotionally entering into this trade.  If I miss it, I know I can catch the next trend in a few days or next week.  The big point is to time your trades so that you are trading with the highest possible probability for success.  That is what we teach our subscribers at Vampire Trading Network, Inc.

The predictive accuracy of Vampire Trading Network, indicators increases with the lower time frames.  We can check this out using the 1 Hour.  You can see that even though it was a highly risky fundamentals (news) trade, the Vampire Trading Network, Inc. Trigger Indicator predicted to the PIP where the first resistance would be encountered at 1.2648.

We can now use this as an entry into a day trade long.

Entry window: 1.2629 - 1.2648

1st Target: 1.2678

2nd Target: 1.2728

3rd target: 1.2777

However, as a Vampire Trading Network, Inc. Subscriber would consult your Heat map.. Yes a type of Red Light Green Light However while the upper time frame trend is still long you can readily see that the lower time frames are consolidating since they are now over extended do to the news release.

We don't want to enter at this moment until the Foresight and returns long PROVIDING that the trend weight remains long as well.

Remember that the 4 hour primary is still consolidating, we HAD low volume on USD holiday and we are recovering from a singleton news release.

No Call Wait till post Holiday move

No volume or any impulse to do anything since Friday has been seen. What with the poor USD news and no movement this week, I am inclined to let things sit until resumption close to ATR.

Of caution is the VERY tight SAR.

The Euro is set for a nice breakout out one way or the other.  The VTN Foresight shows the Daily wanting to turn over, Yet the 4 Hour time frame is just now showing a possibility for early week long.  This can easily turn into a bounce and play short since we are on the VTN Foresight oscillator neutral.

I am going to try and get another good night rest.  For me I want to see the lower time-frame Bollinger bands come to a new synchronized pinch.  Notice how the 4 Hour Bollinger is pinching, this needs to complete before the next move will occur.

The Major technical to come into dominance hopefully by the end of the week will be the VTN Trigger on the Daily chart.  Once this completes the consolidation for the Euro will be complete and we can get back to predictive business for the beginning week[s] of July.

Euro Breakout 1 Hour For 4 Hour consolidation (retrace)

The daily is still committed to a short trend at this time.

The 4 hour needs to commit with the VTN trigger pulling under the candle to indicate a solid retrace/consolidation.

We need to wait for the midnight candle to verify the proposition.

 The Heat map at this time is set for the immediate future i.e. less than swing trade, is long.

We can see that the 5 and 15 are breaking away on our make shift heat map using the standard Bollinger bands.  The 30 has yet to signal us into the 1 hour.

While the 1 hour Vampire Trading Network, Inc. Trigger does not have a completed predictive formation, the 30 minute shows that we have a trade that should get us up to 1.2233.  this just happens to be the 10 SMA on the 4 Hour.  Beyond that is the 1.2252 which also happens to be the bottom of the VTN VRZ caution zone.

The Trigger and other specialized proprietary indicators are available through subscription.

Daily and 4 hour sync'd for short to 1.2180

The Daily has given a formation on the VTN Trigger to be able to predict where the next movement should go down to 1.2180.

The VTN Trigger is a proprietary Bollinger which can be acquired through subscription at Vampire Trading Network, Inc.

The 4 hour also confirms the 1.2180 1st target  (1.2188 for safety)
the entry window is about to occur below 1.2260 to 1.2230
 A stop of 1.2394
A second target 1.2100 (1.2112 for safety)

Sentiment not favorable to Buba Weber Dollar Strength

First off I am not jumping in after missing this run downward.  Of note is that the 4Hour is still pinching showing that there is more pressure to be built up before the 4 hour will break. 

All is now showing toward a short.  We still are not going to get a prediction from the daily till Tuesday Wednesday. But we can glean something from the 4 Hour.

Our short entry is between 1.2261 and 1.2230. In the recent past there has been support around 1.2252 and 1.2240.  and note that our last bottom was 1.2208 on the 6/23.

We show targets at
1.2180 (2188 would be safer)
1.2100 (2112 would be safer
1.2019 outside 1.1988 there will be certainly retrace/consolidation before this unless there is another melt down.

I do not see breaking to the upside for at least 24 hours so I am not even looking that way.

Daily is starting to form a predictive shape 4H looks like Horse Pooh Lower time frame scalps ?

Daily is starting to form a predictive pattern, The 4 hour continues to look like horse pooh, The 1 hour is over pinched, but the 30 minute looks like a great pattern.

On the heat map the daily is committing to a long but could change on the moment. the 4 hour could consolidate the daily further to the down side if the lower time frames commit strongly.  

Basically the Euro can continue to go anywhere.  I am taking lessons from last week and not trading unless in a perfect double pinch.  Ain't worth the extra maintenance effort.  And I am expecting more of the same if the Daily falls back to the 76.4% retrace that it has hung on for several days.

I still am  holding to CAUTION breaking 1.2500 / 1.2552. This is a critical test point.

CURRENTLY the strong resistances are 1.2396 and REMEMBER 1.2404 was a bear to break last week.  then we have the current high to break at 1.2465.  More exact number will be forth coming once the daily fully forms.  By then we should also have a fresh 4 hour formation.

? Poised for Sloppy Breakout

Daily has established support at 1.2243 the 62% retracement.  As I write this we are approaching this, To bounce or not to bounce on the 1H.  50% retracement is at 1.2173 which is also a bounce point for the Vampire Trading Networkm Inc. Custom Trigger Bollinger Indicator, available through Subscription.

For the 1 hour 1.2242 will need to be watched for strength to see if we can crash through the daily floor.
Strength is key.

targets 1.2215 1.2188 outside 1.2162

(MADE 1.2132 1.2232)

EURO 4H Breakout Short 1st Target 1.2262 2nd Target 1.2200 Outside 1.2138

The Euro 4H struggled over our first target last week to 1.2462 before falling off.  The Day chart today has also turned over as it consolidates as the 4H tests the short entry.

As from our last post, the multi time frame Bollinger bands were not very well sync'd but they do give a breakout indication.  BUT as we saw the 4H almost took the entire week to decide what to do.  Given these indicators it is not done deciding there is a LOT of support all over the place.

The one thing I don't like about the probabilities is that the 1 Hour did not make a good pinch formation, rather it is what I call a sliding or falling Bollinger which is a sign of weakness.

On the Day chart we have support at 1.2338 on the 5 EMA and 1.2262 on the 10 SMA.

The 4 Hour has broken major support at 1.2352 and has next support at 1.2288, 1.2262 and 1.2238.

There is little confirmation at this time with the lower time frames as they have not truly consolidated since the craziness of  the last 18 hours.

CAUTIOUSLY:
Entry: 1.2322 / 1.2300 (YUCK!!!)
Stop Loss: 1.2464
1st Target: 1.2262
Caution Target: 1.2238
2nd Target: 1.2212
3rd Target: 1.2138
Outside 1.2112

Because of current weakness I am sure there will be a correction before then.

Burn, BURN! BURN!!! How to Stay out of Trouble with Bollinger Bands and Not Succumb to Amateur Sunday Whipsaw Burn

Last and this mornings Euro have reminded me of an old SNL skit with Steve Martin and Bill Murray, "What the hell is that?"

When "that" happened I took a look at the ForexFactory Euro Forum around 21:30 EDT and was dismayed to find purely amateurish dialog, explanations, and Mr. Dumas trading practices going on from the Asian session through the Euro Session on into the USD session.

The simple explanation as I pointed way before others, is that a inter session gap is typically filled before continuation.  The question should not have been why did the Euro fall so sharply as much as why was there a gap up to begin with.  To be fair to the forum, some experienced traders do post that unpublished fundamentals having to do with China, Oil, Euro state in monetary trouble etc.

The point is You must do your own DO DILIGENCE in order to succeed as a trader.  Remember the Patience is a Virtue Post.  I am a technical trader, which means I am mostly consumed with charting rather than news.  I know for my own improvement I need to improve my awareness of current fundamentals, but typically I trade on upper time frames that just are not affected much by fundamentals, in that a spike from a market news blast typically within hours is exhausted and the currency returns to where the technicals places it. If the stop loss is placed properly there is no worry.  Get below the 4 hour and you will be susceptible to Fundamentals and need to plan accordingly.

Given the last 18 hours, I can guess that there are many a newbies, amateurs and gamblers accounts that have been decimated.  How can one stay out of trouble?  A useful tool is to use the standard Bollinger Band and observe all time frames below your trading time frame as an early warning system.

The standard Bolling Band is made from a Standard Deviation about a Simple Moving Average, or SMA, typically this is a 20 SMA with a standard deviation of 2. What you want to do is have patience by waiting for the Bollinger band to complete it's "pinch" and undergo an expansion or ballooning.  This expansion indicates that volume is flowing in increasing momentum and causing a breakout.  The pinching of the Bollinger Bands is an indication of consolidation that is occurring do to the over extension of a lower time frame.  Ideally one waits until all time frames are sync'd together which is a good indication of the start of the illusive Eliot way.

To the left is a stack of semi synchronized time frames starting with the 5M on the bottom to the 1H on the top.  You can see how each time frame is synchronized to a breakout that occurs between 07:45 and 08:00.   This gives a high probability of a long entry at 08:00 on the 1 hour.

I personally like the 15M in determining exits, and i especially like Bollinger Bands for giving a heads up indication of what is about to happen. In this case notice how the 15M upper Bollinger band is closing over the top of the candle.  This indicates that a consolidation is likely to occur.

On a long trade, look for a negative decrease of slope to indicate potential.  A horizontal to negative slope signals that this leg of the trade is over. Confirmation is indicating by the engulfing Candle.

So for this particular trade. A 1 hour entry would be made on the 08:00 EDT open 1.1997 and an exit would be on the close of the 15M exit of 1.2054 at 11:45.  For FX Solutions with a locked in spread of 3 PIPs, a 54 PIP profit would have been realized.

This example shows an easy way to create a Trend Trading Signal of high probability.  The trick to it's implementation is learning when to enter and exit, and to WAIT for the indicator to fully synchronize and complete before jumping the gun.